Interview with Abdalfattah Hamed Ali, Junior Visiting Fellow, Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

In 2015, Sudan was identified as one of the countries most seriously affected by desertification in Africa, a trend that has only intensified over the years. Over recent years, the country has been embroiled in a complex conflict that is compounded by geopolitical and historical legacies. Climate change is increasingly seen as a major contributor to the conflict in Sudan, exacerbating decades of environmental challenges and fueling social and political instability. The conflict has, indeed, exacerbated environmental degradation and amplified challenges facing the country's agricultural sector, directly affecting farmers and posing a significant economic challenge to the entire population.

In this interview, Abdalftah sheds light on the intricate interplay between war, displacement, and the environment in Sudan. He looks into past efforts to combat desertification, offering insights into the environmental, agricultural, and economic landscape of the war-torn country.

How have the war and the ensuing displacement exacerbated environmental damage, including desertification and drought? And what economic effects does it have on farmers and the national economy?

Studies are still trying to assess the economic and environmental damages of the war. No doubt the ongoing conflict has had a severe economic impact, with over $200 billion in losses due to the destruction in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Regarding farmers, about a third were displaced from their farms and 40% were unable to prepare for the planting season due to lack of funds to buy seeds and fertilizers, and/or to hire farm labor. This, compounded by bad weather conditions, poor quality of the local seed varieties, higher cost of improved seeds, and delayed rains due to climate changes, seriously affected their livelihoods and caused them to seek refuge in other neighboring states.

On a national level, the war has caused a severe humanitarian catastrophe, displaced over 8.6 million people, caused the death of 15,000, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and economically productive activities. The war has disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. More than 66% of food companies and factories in the country have ceased to operate. Sudan’s GDP is expected to decrease by half. This has led to a significant decrease in household incomes and an increase in the number of people living under the poverty line.

War and displacement in Sudan have also disturbed the ecological balance. As people flee war and return to villages, they rebuild using scarce resources that are vital to the ecosystem. This includes cutting down trees and converting ancient migratory routes and pastureland into farmland. These actions accelerate desertification and worsen drought conditions, thereby reigniting conflict.

A study, published in the ARPN Journal of Science and Technology in 2015, identified Sudan as “one of the most seriously affected countries by desertification in Africa.” How do you think desertification fueled the previous conflicts and the current war in Sudan?

It might be difficult to directly link desertification to the current conflict, but previous conflicts in the country have been fueled by desertification. Sixty-five percent or more of Sudanese are farmers and herders, and their previous migrations from the countryside to the cities directly contribute to desertification. Farmers have traditional mechanisms to combat desertification, and in their absence, this crisis worsens. Additionally, this migration leads to a scarcity of fertile resources and water, which leads to armed conflicts over the control of these limited resources. This includes conflicts over mines in Darfur and the Northern state, and conflicts over gum arabic and gold.

War, displacement, climate change, and desertification—how do you think these factors will shape the agricultural future in Sudan, once known as a global food basket and currently on the verge of famine?

Sudan is going through a critical juncture due to the interaction of all these factors, but hope in a better future still exists thanks to the flexibility of the agricultural sector. Of course, the war disrupted many agricultural activities due to the attacks of the Rapid Support Forces on agricultural states such as Al-Jazira, Gedaref, and Al-Fashir, which prevented the harvest of many products and led to food insecurity and economic instability. If these areas are retaken, it will make a big difference in Sudan’s agricultural future.

The interaction of the effects of climate change in Sudan, such as floods, irregular rainfall, and periods of drought, with the fragile political structure, has disrupted agricultural and economic activities. If not addressed in an organized manner, they may become more frequent in the future and cause crop loss, worsening food security. These challenges can be reduced by exploiting the agricultural potential available in the country and taking advantage of arable land.

What role did the local communities and stakeholders, as well as international organizations, play in combating desertification and environmental degradation in Sudan?

Before the war, local initiatives against desertification focused on harnessing traditional practices for managing and preserving the local environment. For example, planting gum arabic trees in Kordofan State to combat desertification.

The Bashir government also introduced some policies and initiatives to combat desertification, but these efforts were weak in terms of development and research due to insufficient interest and support. As for international organizations, the United Nations implemented strategies under the Desertification Convention to enhance resilience against desertification. However, there was little to no coordination between the international organizations, local initiatives, and government entities.

Currently, conflict, displacement, and humanitarian disasters dominate the scene. Nevertheless, the environmental aspect should not be seen as secondary. Rather, it should be considered a priority, even amidst the ongoing war, because it is directly linked to the economy as discussed in a previous question. The collapse of the economy directly contributes to the continuation of the conflict and undermines any potential peace agreement.

How do you envision the future trajectory of environmental conservation efforts in Sudan amidst the ongoing conflict and post-conflict recovery?

It is expected that the post-conflict recovery will be prolonged. Greater emphasis must be placed on development and agricultural aspects, and on combating factors that reduce agricultural output through coordination with relevant environmental bodies and through desertification control.

In 2020, Sudan, then ruled by the transitional government, released its first report on the country's environmental status and future expectations. It presented a vision for rural development and investments to reduce rural-to-urban migration. This report discussed, for the first time, analytical aspects and how to adapt and build resilience towards climate change. It also addressed establishing a regulatory framework for the mining sector and enhancing environmentally friendly technologies used in this sector. After the 2021 coup, these efforts collapsed, and the focus shifted to other aspects.

In addition to international support, efforts initiated by the transitional government must continue if Sudan is to tackle the challenges of climate change and achieve food self-sufficiency through investment in its agricultural lands.