Introduction

The recent Gaza war and the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel – after 470 days of bombing, killing, destruction, and displacement – mark a pivotal moment in the history of the Palestinian cause and the future of the Palestinian people, who aspire to achieve national unity and end their century-long suffering.

Today, national investment in the Gaza war and its outcomes represents the most pressing challenge for all Palestinian parties. While the ceasefire provides a reprieve for Gaza's residents, the lack of consensus on post-war governance, combined with the complexities of reconstruction, and potential foreign interventions, casts doubt and uncertainty over the region’s future. Israel has sought – and continues to seek – to turn the recent battle into an opportunity to "correct the historical mistake" of previous Israeli governments of failing to complete the displacement and removal of the Palestinian presence from historic Palestine. This is because the demographic balance in historic Palestine favors Palestinians, threatening the stability and growth of the Zionist project, according to warnings from Israeli researchers in national security research centers over the past two decades. This demographic threat explains Israel’s brutal and fascist behavior, which aims to make Gaza uninhabitable, creating conditions that make displacement inevitable and a matter of time for Palestinians. Israel has systematically and deliberately targeted all vital civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads, transportation networks, and utilities, to push Palestinians toward seeking individual escape due to the unbearable conditions imposed by Israel.

Palestinians find themselves as passive recipients of discussions about the post-war future of Gaza, divided by internal disputes that have weakened the collective Palestinian stance. Three crucial issues deteriorated before and during the war. The first is Palestinian representation, which suffers from clear duality: the world negotiates with Hamas on hostages and the ceasefire while engaging with the Palestinian Authority (PA) on political arrangements for Gaza. The second issue relates to Palestinian statehood, as Israel refuses any form of Palestinian territorial unity following the war. The third issue concerns the Palestinian national movement, which has suffered a severe blow in the collective Palestinian consciousness, as it has failed to provide a true model for enhancing citizens' resilience in Gaza or achieving national cohesion among Palestinian communities over more than 15 months of war.

Gaza’s citizens observe their situation with deep pessimism, having almost lost faith in Palestinian political leadership and international actors in delivering a path to genuine national liberation and independence. Pessimism has become a defining characteristic of citizens living under harsh and miserable conditions, robbing them of emotional balance to envision their national future.

Despite varying opinions on the future governance of Gaza post-war and the expected interventions of foreign powers, including Israel, this paper aims to analyze the perspective of Palestinian citizens in Gaza regarding their political future in light of the war’s aftermath. It examines different political perspectives on governance in Palestinian territories and the feasibility of turning the current ordeal into a real opportunity to achieve full national independence.

This paper is based on a comprehensive review of literature and previous studies on the Palestinian future, as well as in-depth interviews with elites, writers, and intellectuals to explore their perspectives on this future.

General Background: The Neglected Issue of Governance in Gaza

The destruction caused by the recent war in Gaza has deepened existing crises, leading to major damage to the infrastructure as well as the social, economic, and political structures, making the future seem more uncertain and detached from the needs of Gaza’s residents. While Gaza stands at a strategic crossroads, its residents face a growing sense of helplessness and frustration due to their exclusion from any meaningful role in shaping their future, which seems to be planned by external actors far removed from them.

According to a 2023 survey by the Arab Barometer, over 75% of Gaza’s residents believe that the international community has failed to provide the necessary support to improve their conditions due to the absence of genuine efforts to resolve the crisis and the continuation of the blockade imposed for more than 15 years.

Politically, the gap between the people and both local and international leadership continues to widen. The internal scene in Gaza is deeply divided among Palestinian factions, leaving residents feeling like hostages to a division that obstructs any serious attempts at change. Meanwhile, Gazans feel excluded from political decision-making processes that determine their future. Many believe that their voices are ignored and that issues affecting them are marginalized in favor of external agendas that are focused solely on security and stability rather than addressing their humanitarian and economic needs.

Economically, the war has caused a total collapse of Gaza’s economy. Unemployment rates have reached unprecedented levels, exceeding 80% among youth, making employment opportunities virtually nonexistent. This economic crisis also reflects the widespread frustration and helplessness among residents, who find themselves trapped in a cycle of poverty and complete dependence on humanitarian aid.

Beyond the war's direct effects, it is important to emphasize the deep crisis of trust existing between Palestinian citizens and their political system. This crisis shapes Palestinians' vision and perceptions of Gaza’s future and has multiple causes, including:

1. A Turbulent Political History: Since the Palestinian political division in 2007, Palestine has experienced an unprecedented phase of geographic and institutional fragmentation between the West Bank and Gaza. This division was not merely a temporary political split but evolved into a structural reality that weakened the Palestinian political system and deeply affected all aspects of daily life. Gaza became a completely isolated entity, leading to the emergence of two separate authorities, each with its own political and administrative agenda. This division eroded public trust, as many Palestinians felt that political leadership prioritized their internal conflicts over addressing national challenges. Over time, this situation became a tragic reality that reinforced doubts about the leadership's ability to restore national unity and achieve shared goals.
2. Erosion of Political Legitimacy: The absence of Palestinian elections since 2006 has dealt a severe blow to the concept of political legitimacy in Palestinian territories. Without any electoral process to reflect the people's will, a widespread sense has grown among Palestinians that their political leadership no longer represents them. This has led to significant frustration among citizens, who view the political system as a tool for entrenching factional interests rather than serving the national interest. According to the 2024 Arab Barometer survey, 60% of Gaza’s residents expressed a lack of confidence in their political leadership. This high percentage reflects collective frustration and a sharp decline in trust in the system’s ability to meet public aspirations.
3. Economic and Social Reality: The ongoing Israeli blockade for more than two decades, along with repeated wars, has created a suffocating economic and social environment in Gaza. Residents live under harsh conditions, with unemployment reaching unprecedented levels – rising from more than 47% in 2023 among youth and now exceeding 80% in 2024. These economic hardships have shifted the daily priorities of Gazans toward mere survival – securing necessities like food, water, and shelter. In this context, political and social participation has declined, as many see little point in engaging with a political system that fails to improve their reality. Furthermore, the gap between society and leadership has widened as services continue to deteriorate.

Palestinians' Perceptions of Gaza's Future After the War

The critical question is: What does the day after look like for Gaza? This question is not merely procedural or operational but deeply political. It seeks to explore the available opportunities for Palestinians to govern themselves in Gaza. It is no longer solely up to Palestinians to decide their governance structure. This does not imply surrendering to Israeli demands as an inevitable fate but rather recognizing the factors and determinants that can lead to the success or failure of any given option.

First, it is essential to note that after more than 15 months of genocide and Israel’s deliberate and systematic distortion of Palestinian collective consciousness, much of the Palestinian public has come to see the necessity of ending the war and the mass killings at any cost. Consequently, discussions about governance structures and the "day after" seem to many a luxury they cannot afford at this moment. Second, it is important to recognize that the future governance of Gaza is currently surrounded by challenges and opportunities in multiple directions. Therefore, this paper will integrate perspectives based on three key approaches:

1. The Optimistic Approach: This perspective views the recent war and subsequent ceasefire agreement as a promising opportunity for Palestinian national investment, compelling Israel to acknowledge Palestinian rights as stipulated by successive UN resolutions and historical rulings of international humanitarian law.¹This includes the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice, and the recent International Criminal Court decision issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Galant The war has reshaped global public opinion on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,²Dr. Imad Abu Hamma: Political Science Researcher, Director of Masarat Center for Policy Research, Gaza, personal interview. with increasing voices worldwide opposing Israeli policies and a growing European recognition of the Palestinian state. Thus, according to this perspective, the current conditions are more favorable than ever for internationally isolating Israel and pressuring it to respond to the global opposition against its continued occupation of Palestinian territories. This means that the situation may ultimately favor Palestinian demands for national independence, offering a chance to rebuild a unified Palestinian vision that ends internal division. Particularly notable is Hamas’s growing acceptance of the two-state solution as a basis for resolving the Palestinian conflict, a position it previously opposed in contrast to the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
2. The Pessimistic Approach: Proponents of this view³Tayseer Muheisen: Member of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian People's Party, personal interview. see the recent war as an exceptional Israeli opportunity to correct past strategic mistakes, complete the expulsion and removal of Palestinians, and address the demographic imbalance with Palestinians inside historic Palestine, ultimately resolving the conflict in favor of the stability of the settler-colonial regime. Israel, therefore, seeks to impose realities and create hostile living conditions that make life unlivable for Palestinians, undermining both individual and collective security. This approach ultimately aims to achieve a “voluntary” transfer of Palestinians – not through direct violence, but through unbearable circumstances. In this context, Israel is working to transform Gaza from the "big prison" model that existed for years into a fragmented system of collapsing population "islets and bubbles”. The consequences of the war are being used to sever Gaza from the West Bank and remove it from the national Palestinian context altogether. To this end, Israel is conducting a systematic destruction campaign to eliminate any potential for Gaza to contribute to the Palestinian national cause. This will later allow Israel to isolate the West Bank, turning it into disconnected enclaves, thereby cementing annexation and settlement expansion, ultimately dismissing the Palestinian national dream. According to this approach, Hamas will no longer govern Gaza, and the PA will not return to reclaim authority over Gaza. Since last year, Israel has been promoting new governance models for Gaza, including local administrative councils, an international Arab peacekeeping force, and a long-term Israeli military occupation.
3. The Reconciliatory Approach: This approach examines the realities on the ground and seeks to link them with future political prospects. Its proponents believe that the priority is to end the war, followed by necessary political system reforms within Palestine to restore the legitimacy of national institutions, particularly the PLO, the Palestinian Legislative Council, and the Palestinian Presidency through elections. Until this is achieved, the State of Palestine could request the League of Arab States to assume temporary guardianship over Gaza, facilitating its reconstruction and rehabilitation. This should be accompanied by serious political reforms by the PA, proving its credibility in reunifying Palestinian territories.

In this context, the Saudi role can be leveraged, especially given Israel’s desire for normalization with Saudi Arabia. However, such normalization should come with a political price linked to a just and comprehensive resolution of the Palestinian cause, especially since Saudi Arabia leads an international coalition supporting the two-state solution. Through Arab guardianship and political reforms, the two-state solution could regain its credibility and impose itself within the conflict’s framework, curbing Israel’s unilateral separation policies regarding Gaza.

Aspirations of Gazans for the Day After the War and How They Could Be Achieved

The people of Gaza live under the burden of continuous wars, where successive conflicts destroy everything – from infrastructure to human lives. Each day passes with great hopes for a better tomorrow. At the end of every war, Gazans express their aspirations for the day after – a day when they can return to normal life. However, these aspirations are surrounded by many challenges imposed by political, social, and economic conditions. In this context, the Gazans’ aspirations can be summarized into five main areas:⁴These were the outcomes of a focus group of political youth activists from different Palestinian parties, held in Gaza.

1. Rapid Reconstruction of Infrastructure and Economic Recovery

The extensive destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure remains one of the most significant challenges faced by Gazans after each war.

According to a report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the latest Israeli aggression on Gaza in 2023 resulted in the destruction of over 50,000 housing units and damage to more than 30,000 commercial and industrial establishments. This massive destruction hinders the ability of Gaza to return to normal economic activity. Thus, the people of Gaza aspire to rebuild these structures as quickly as possible, focusing on projects that create job opportunities and improve living conditions. In this context, international support through humanitarian aid and reconstruction funding becomes essential. Studies show that for every $1 invested in reconstruction projects, approximately $1.6 is generated in the local economy by providing job opportunities and stimulating different economic sectors. However, the blockade on Gaza remains one of the biggest obstacles preventing residents from achieving their aspirations.

To rebuild the infrastructure and revitalize the local economy, the following measures are needed:

• Investment in sustainable reconstruction: Gaza requires significant investment in infrastructure to create job opportunities and improve essential services. The international community can fund projects to rebuild homes and public facilities, focusing on sustainable and environmentally friendly construction techniques, such as using local, low-cost materials. A 2021 World Bank report recommended allocating $2 billion to rebuilding Gaza’s infrastructure, with an emphasis on the health and education sectors.
• Launching programs to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): Governmental and non-governmental institutions can promote entrepreneurship by providing affordable financing and vocational training. Similar programs in conflict-affected areas, including Palestine, have demonstrated that every $1 invested in SME support can generate over $3 in GDP growth.
• Accelerating the entry of essential materials through border crossings: Streamlining security and customs procedures is crucial to ensure the rapid arrival of construction materials such as cement and steel. Studies have shown that expediting these processes directly reduces costs and increases the efficiency of reconstruction efforts.

2. Reforming the Palestinian Political System and Strengthening National Unity

Gazans hope that the post-war period will serve as a turning point for reforming the Palestinian political system, which has long suffered from severe divisions among different political factions. Many studies indicate that declining public trust in Palestinian political institutions over past decades has significantly reduced citizen participation in the political process. A 2023 poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research revealed that approximately 72% of Gazans have lost faith in the Palestinian political system due to the ongoing division between Fatah and Hamas.

Therefore, Palestinians in Gaza aspire to build a more transparent and democratic political system that allows all factions and societal groups to participate in decision-making. They seek comprehensive elections that ensure the representation of all Palestinian groups, including women and youth, in political institutions. Additionally, restructuring the PLO to represent all Palestinians, both within Palestine and in the diaspora, is a top priority.

To reform the Palestinian system and enhance national unity, the following steps are needed:

• A comprehensive national conference: It is crucial to hold an inclusive Palestinian conference to discuss national reconciliation and political reform. This should include discussions on uniting Palestinian factions under one framework while preserving political and ideological diversity. A notable example is the 2017 Cairo Agreement between Fatah and Hamas, which saw some progress despite challenges.
• Reforming the PLO: The PLO must be restructured to include all Palestinian factions, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in order to create a more representative political structure. Studies indicate that broad representation across factions enhances trust in the Palestinian political system and strengthens political discourse.
• Conducting transparent democratic elections: Organizing free and fair elections that reflect the will of the Palestinian people is essential. In this context, securing a safe and independent electoral environment is crucial. According to the Global Democracy Index by The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2016, free elections significantly enhance political participation and reinforce transparency.

3. Achieving Security and Social Stability

After each war, Gazans experience continuous anxiety regarding their security and the safety of their families. Beyond military threats, they face internal security issues due to power vacuums created by wars. Reports indicate that most residents in Gaza lack personal security due to the proliferation of illegal weapons and internal factional conflicts. A 2022 study by the Palestinian News Agency found that 56% of Gazans feel unsafe due to internal disputes and political factionalism.

Therefore, Palestinians seek to enhance societal security by establishing independent and effective security institutions that ensure internal stability and reduce lawlessness and insecurity. This includes strengthening the local authorities' ability to manage security affairs, combat crime, and create a safe environment for a return to normal life.

To enhance security and social stability, there is a need to:

• Strengthen independent security institutions: The Palestinian security system must be restructured for it to be more independent and effective in maintaining public order. This includes training security personnel and ensuring the proper enforcement of laws. A World Bank study highlights that building strong security institutions is fundamental to political and social stability.
• Launch internal reconciliation initiatives: Encouraging dialogue among Palestinian factions through national reconciliation sessions can help reduce internal tensions and shift focus on national priorities, such as reconstruction and social development.
• Support community policing: Establishing community policing programs can build trust between security forces and the local population, helping to protect citizens and curb lawlessness.

4. Psychological and Social Recovery

One of the most pressing humanitarian aspirations of Gazans is the desire for psychological and social recovery after the deep trauma caused by multiple wars.

A 2023 report by the World Health Organization states that around 60% of Gaza residents suffer from severe psychological disorders due to difficult living conditions and continuous violence. These disorders include anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Children and young people are the most affected, as they struggle with psychological and social adaptation after each war.

To achieve psychological and social recovery for Gazans, the following steps are essential:

• Launching comprehensive psychological support programs: Mental health support must be provided to all groups, particularly children and women, through targeted programs aimed at healing war trauma. Studies indicate that psychological support for children enhances their academic performance and reduces domestic violence rates.
• Training specialists in psychotherapy: Strengthening Gaza’s capacity to address psychological trauma through training local mental health professionals can have a significant impact on community well-being and reduce dependence on external aid.
• Engaging the community in social and recreational activities: Establishing social and recreational support centers can enhance community resilience. Similar programs in conflict zones like Iraq have demonstrated significant improvements in individual mental health outcomes.

5. Ensuring Social Justice and Equal Opportunities

Gaza’s residents aspire to build a society that promotes social justice and provides equal opportunities for all. The ongoing blockade and prolonged conflict have exacerbated poverty and unemployment, particularly among young people. According to a 2022 World Bank report, the unemployment rate in Gaza reached approximately 50%, with youth unemployment at 70%. This reality has caused frustration among young people, who seek employment opportunities and skill development to contribute to a prosperous Palestinian society.

To achieve social justice and equal opportunities, the following steps are needed:

• Supporting entrepreneurship and youth training: Local and international institutions should provide targeted training programs for youth, giving them opportunities to engage in the labor market through SMEs. A World Bank study indicated that supporting SMEs could create over 10,000 jobs in Gaza within five years.
• Restructuring vocational and technical education: Vocational and technical education in Gaza should be strengthened, offering training programs in fields such as construction, healthcare, and renewable energy, which would equip youth with the necessary skills to enter the job market.
• Establishing social support funds for the needy: Financial support should be provided to citizens living below the poverty line, especially in rural and impoverished areas. These funds can be financed through partnerships between the public and private sectors and international humanitarian organizations.

Conclusion

Israel may be shaping Gaza’s future according to its colonial perspective, seeking to correct the historical mistake of previous Israeli governments in failing to complete the full expulsion, erasure, and removal of Gaza’s population. This colonial outlook explains Israel’s relentless efforts to eliminate all means of life in Gaza, rendering it uninhabitable for its residents, and shifting its forced displacement attempts at the beginning of the war into a voluntary migration driven by the necessity of individual survival. This strategy relies on a systematic process of psychological conditioning, compelling Gaza’s inhabitants to view and accept departure as their only means of personal salvation, especially after all political factions and forces failed efforts to support their resilience amid Israel’s campaign of extermination.

In its attempt to achieve this goal, Israel will work to politicize aid and reconstruction efforts in order to prolong the suffering of Gaza’s residents and ensure their lives remain miserable for years and decades to come.

However, this Israeli strategy may clash with the policies of the United States under Donald Trump, who seeks to revive his previous efforts to reshape the Middle East based on the Abraham Accords and secure full normalization between Arab states and Israel – particularly with Saudi Arabia. Trump views Saudi Arabia as the ultimate prize in this arrangement, considering it a goldmine that he aims to dominate and control, thereby blocking Chinese and Russian influence in the region while maintaining US hegemony, especially over Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, however, tied its willingness to join the Abraham Accords on a just resolution of the Palestinian cause in accordance with international legitimacy. It has formed an international coalition of 66 countries advocating for a two-state solution – a stance that directly contradicts the far-right vision in Israel.

This indicates that the future of Gaza is no longer solely Palestinian but has become deeply entangled with regional and international interests. Meanwhile, Palestinian internal weakness persists due to internal political division, the war of extermination in Gaza, and the ongoing silent war led by settlers in the West Bank under the protection of the Israeli army.

At the time of writing this conclusion, a ceasefire has taken effect in Gaza, and the early signs of the post-war landscape are emerging through various developments on the ground. One of the most notable changes is the management of the Rafah border crossing, where the PA in Ramallah has been only partially and administratively reinstated to oversee operations alongside the EU mission, while Israel retains full control over who is permitted to exit or re-enter to Gaza. Additionally, American security companies have been deployed to inspect displaced persons returning to Gaza City and the northern part of the Strip.

These developments suggest that Gaza’s governance will not revert to full Palestinian self-administration as it was before October 7. Instead, the initial phase of governance is likely to involve accepting the presence of international forces – either official military personnel or private security firms – to create a buffer zone between civilians and Israeli occupation forces. Israel is expected to maintain a strong military presence along Gaza’s borders while annexing at least 60 kilometers of land as buffer zones under security pretexts.

This international or private security presence will be accompanied by a local administrative body to govern Gaza, with the approval of the PA, similar to the arrangement at the Rafah crossing. Over time, the PA will likely be required to legitimize its governance of Gaza through a series of political reforms. These may include transferring all presidential powers to the Prime Minister, establishing a new police force that does not oppose Israel and coordinates with it, and implementing significant changes to the education sector, including modifications to the Palestinian curriculum.

Hamas’s removal from governance is now a regional and international decision, not just an Israeli one. Hamas is perceived as an obstacle to the realization of Donald Trump’s vision for the “New Middle East,” necessitating the complete elimination of its future role and the curtailment of its influence in Palestinian society. Hamas is also held directly responsible for the catastrophe that has befallen Gaza.

In conclusion, it can be said that Gaza’s foreseeable future will not be purely Palestinian. The Strip is currently undergoing a process of conditioning and taming designed to force it to accept political dictates without having any real influence over them. Most likely, humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts will be used as leverage to achieve the objectives Israel set in motion during its genocidal war.