1. Introduction

The need for water justice in the MENA region represents a pressing policy challenge, as governments confront pressures from climate change that threaten water resources. The region is considered one of the most water-scarce in the world,¹Dominick de Waal et al., The Economics of Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa: Institutional Solutions, World Bank, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1739-7 [de Waal et al., The Economics of Water Scarcity]; According to this report, by 2030, it is expected that the water available per capita in the region will fall below 500 cubic meters per person per year, which will be below the absolute water scarcity threshold. but its geographic diversity means that different countries in MENA face a litany of challenges when securing water and food for their populations in just and sustainable ways. Several of them must address systemic issues in water governance, including unequal allocation, inadequate infrastructure, and uneven access among rural, urban, and displaced populations. Others face increasing droughts, driving vast areas that rely on agriculture for their income into social and economic precarity. Climate change, population growth, and transboundary water tensions further complicate national and regional efforts to ensure fair and sustainable water management.

Since the end of the Second World War, international aid and development organizations have launched technical cooperation projects, often focused on rural water supply and irrigation. Led by the WB and United Nations agencies over the last three decades, bilateral aid agencies and the EU, these international financial institutions (IFIs) have played a significant role in water development – promoting approaches like integrated water resource management (IWRM), as well as lending support for transboundary water management and water governance. This support can be traced back through reams of documentation and convenings that showcase technical assistance and financing for various water development efforts, including dam building, irrigation projects, and wastewater treatment plants, with claims often linked to sustainability principles and sound water management.

Viewing these actions from a water justice lens, we argue that water development processes and structures pertaining to transparent decision-making, participation, and democracy are as important as equitability and fairness in access to water.²Leila M. Harris et al., “Water Justice: Key Concepts, Debates and Research Agendas”, in The Routledge Handbook of Environmental Justice, Ryan Holifield, Jayajit Chakraborty and Gordon Walker (eds.), Routledge, 2017. [Harris et al., “Water Justice”] In this context, the role that IFIs can play in enabling or hindering water justice across various countries in the MENA region warrants scrutiny. This report examines how IFIs might facilitate a just water future for the region, exploring how their practices, investments, and partnerships influence fairness in access, equity, sustainability, and transparency in water governance.

1.1.Water in MENA: A Quick Overview

According to the WB, limited availability of water resources has meant that in many areas of the region, farmers have relied on non-renewable groundwater sources, yet this too is being depleted at an unsustainable rate. More than half of the countries in the region depend on groundwater for more than 50% of their water needs.³Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Groundwater in the Arab Region, ESCWA Water Development Report 9, United Nations, 2021, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4000563?v=pdf [ESCWA, Groundwater in the Arab Region] When withdrawal rates increase the ability of groundwater renewal, it is not just the quantity of water that is under threat, but also its quality due to seawater intrusion in coastal zones. These practices are not just individual actions, but are often the result of economic policies that do not sufficiently consider environmental outcomes. For example, in North Africa, farmers’ use of groundwater resources is indirectly encouraged by rural development policies that prioritize high-value crops at the expense of sustainable water use, leading to serious water quality impacts in times of drought when water from dams is unavailable.⁴Marcel Kuper et al., “Liberation or Anarchy? The Janus Nature of Groundwater Use on North Africa’s New Irrigation Frontiers”, in Integrated Groundwater Management: Concepts, Approaches and Challenges, A. Jakeman, O. Barreteau, R. Hunt, J. D. Rinaudo, & A. Ross (eds.), Springer, 2016, pp. 583–615, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23576-9_23

In terms of water usage, agriculture is the largest consumer in the MENA region, in most cases accounting for up to 80% of total water use. The shift to cash crops in the last 60 or 70 years has exacerbated the situation. Crops that require considerable amounts of water, such as wheat, rice, water-intensive fruits, or vegetables grown for foreign markets, have put additional stress on available water supplies.⁵de Waal et al., The Economics of Water Scarcity. Moreover, the rapid growth in population⁶The region’s population grew from just over 100 million people in 1960 to more than 500 million in 2023. It is expected to reach more than 700 million by 2050, according to World Bank Open Data, “Population, Total - Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan” accessed April 21, 2025, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZQ and increased urbanization strain water resources further. With current water management strategies in place, water demand is expected to increase so that by 2050, an additional 25 billion m3 annually will be required to meet the region’s needs.⁷de Waal et al., The Economics of Water Scarcity.

To date, governments in MENA have focused mainly on supply augmentation, such as building more dams, groundwater tapping, and desalination, with much less attention paid to efficiency or better governance.⁸Jeannie Sowers, “Water, Energy and Human Insecurity in the Middle East”, Middle East Report, no. 271 (Summer 2014), https://merip.org/2014/07/water-energy-and-human-insecurity-in-the-middle-east/ [Sowers, “Water, Energy and Human Insecurity”] This comes at a great financial and environmental cost.⁹Hussam Hussein, “Lifting the Veil: Unpacking the discourse of Water Scarcity in Jordan”, Environmental Science & Policy 89 (2018) pp. 385–392, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.09.007 [Hussein, “Lifting the Veil”] The overuse of groundwater and recourse to water desalination have enabled policymakers to delay action on efficient irrigation options. Such technical fixes dominate current plans and actions in MENA countries, neglecting sustainability strategies and policymaking.¹⁰Eric Swyngedouw and Joe Williams, “ From Spain’s Hydro-Deadlock to the Desalination Fix”, Water International 41, no. 1 (2016) pp. 54–73, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1107705 Furthermore, water utilities in more than half of the region’s cities reported up to 30% non-revenue water (NRW) losses.¹¹Water losses are usually a combination of leaky pipes, water theft from illegal connections, and inaccurate water meters. See Natasha Hall, “Surviving Scarcity: Water and the Future of the Middle East”, CSIS, 22 March 2024, https://features.csis.org/surviving-scarcity-water-and-the-future-of-the-middle-east/ [Hall, “Surviving Scarcity”] According to the WB, increased reliance on virtual water¹²Abdeslam Boudhar et al., “Assessment of Virtual Water Flows in Morocco’s Foreign Trade of Crop Products”, Resources 12, no. 4 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12040049 – water used to produce essential commodities, such as wheat and cereal imported into the region – has doubled in the last two decades, which exposes MENA countries to supply shocks.¹³Marta Antonelli, Francesco Laio and Stefania Tamea, “Water Resources, Food Security and the Role of Virtual Water Trade in the MENA Region”, in Environmental Change And Human Security in Africa and the Middle East, Mohamed Behnassi and Katriona McGlade (eds.), Springer: Cham, 2017, pp. 199–217, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45648-5_11 This leads to economic and political instability and reduced food resilience when food prices rise, foreshadowing serious political implications in some parts of the region.¹⁴Alia Gana, “The Rural and Agricultural Roots of the Tunisian Revolution: When Food Security Matters”, The International Journal of Sociology of Agriculture Food 19, no. 2 (2012), pp. 201–213, https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01165135v1

Two main aspects of water management reflect the MENA region. First, the drive to achieve economic modernity involves intensive agriculture aimed at export markets and extensive water augmentation projects,¹⁵Marcel Kuper, Pierre-Louis Mayaux and Ahmed Benmihoub, “The Persistent Appeal of the California Agricultural Dream in North Africa”, Water Alternatives 16, no. 1 (2023) pp. 39–64, https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/vol16/v16issue1/689-a16-1-6 with serious implications for rural economies and the environment.¹⁶Farah Boussi, “Impact of Agriculture, Manufacturing, Tourism, and Transportation on Environmental Quality in the Middle East and North Africa region”, International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research 10, no. 8 (2025) pp. 3330–3367, https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2025.v10i08.021 Second, weak or ineffective water governance aggravates shortcomings in water management. Where decision-making is centralized, much-needed decisions for fair and efficient water allocation between competing needs become politically unpopular, leading to, in some cases, government inaction and consequently further water mismanagement.¹⁷de Waal et al., The Economics of Water Scarcity.

Transboundary water in MENA presents another source of geopolitical tension, mainly along the Nile River Basin,¹⁸Abren Gelaw and Mulugeta Debele, “International Water Conventions, the Exploitation of Trans-Boundary Rivers and the Nile Water Dispute among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt”, Heliyon 10, no. 21 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38671 the Tigris-Euphrates basin,¹⁹Alessandro Tinti, “Scales of Justice: Large Dams and Water Rights in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin”, Policy and Society 42, no. 2 (2023) pp. 184–196, https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc/puad003 and the Jordan River basin,²⁰Mohammad Abu Awash and Adel Abdel Ghafar, Water Diplomacy: How to Prevent Water Wars in the MENA Region, Issue Brief, Middle East Council, January 2025, https://mecouncil.org/publication/water-diplomacy-how-to-prevent-water-wars-in-the-mena-region as well as between bordering countries.²¹Mohammadreza Dehshiri and Hamed Hekmatara, “Water Diplomacy and Water Disputes in the Maghreb Region”, Technium Social Sciences Journal 10 (2020) pp. 530–543, https:doi.org/10.47577/tssj.v10i1.1329 These require negotiations and fair agreements to guarantee equitable access and social justice for communities directly affected by shared basin areas. While regional transboundary water governance is beyond the scope of this report, it is important to note the complexities it adds to these fragile water management systems, with implications for stability and security for the region.

Furthermore, the impacts of climate change – with its predicted increase in temperatures, rainfall variations, and frequent droughts – are expected to exacerbate water scarcity.²²Hall, “Surviving Scarcity”. Rising temperatures and more frequent droughts will diminish surface water flows in key basins, such as the Jordan River and Tigris-Euphrates, and expected sea-level rises will salinize coastal aquifers.²³Mohammed Mahmoud, “The Looming Climate and Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 19 April 2024, https://tinyurl.com/tw7633nk These environmental stresses threaten agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods that deepen socio-economic inequalities and increase pressure on already fragile state stability.²⁴Sowers, “Water, Energy and Human Insecurity”.

1.2. Scope and Methodology

The challenges related to water security in the MENA region are not only due to geography and the impact of climate change, but increasingly a problem of management and governance.²⁵Hussein, “Lifting the Veil”. This report focuses on water justice – i.e., access to water and fair governance that is sustainable and that protects people’s livelihoods and well-being. We posit that water justice, as an approach, can support efforts to address good governance for water in countries of the region by drawing attention to equity, transparency, accountability, and engagement with local communities. In addition to rearranging priority areas for water management, a water justice framework helps challenge power dynamics and implores us to ask: who has access to water, who controls that access, and whose voices or opinions count in managing and governing water resources? Given the considerable role that IFIs play (through grants or loans) in financing water development programs and projects, this thematic report provides an overview of water development in the region, focusing on the role of IFIs and delineating what that means for water justice. It analyzes their impact by expanding on the main tenets: (a) equity and access, including affordability and pricing; (b) engagement with local communities and participation; and (c) legal and administrative reforms for sound water governance.

The research methodology is based on policy analysis and key informant interviews with actors who are currently engaged in water development in the MENA region. Their roles can be described as follows:

• Academics and researchers of various specialties in water management, governance, and policymaking.
• Directors or program officers at think-tanks or organizations focused on water development or natural resource management.
• Program directors and officers at IFIs, including UN agencies, WB, and the EU.
• Consultants and water experts with experience working on IFI-funded water projects.
• Project leaders on current water projects that assess the impacts on beneficiaries.

These interviews explored different actors’ definitions of water justice, through their reasoning, their experiences working in the water sector, and their opinions regarding the role of IFIs in supporting practices conducive to water justice, including community engagement, policy reforms, and accountability. The interviews were semi-structured, based on a set of questions, but were naturalistic, allowing free-flowing conversations, reiterations, and spontaneous questions or probes. Conducted mostly online, the purpose was to capture diverse perceptions and narratives of water-related developments in the region to assess the potential role that IFIs can play in achieving water justice.

A total of 21 meetings and interviews were conducted between August 2024 and March 2025. Informants were selected using a snowball technique, based on the author’s and the Arab Reform Initiative’s (ARI) networks in the region. In addition to the interviews and literature, the author benefited from a workshop with other water researchers at ARI.