Summary

This paper analyzes the escalation processes that led to the outbreak of the April 2023 war in Sudan, based on Wolfram Lacher's theoretical framework of "escalation processes". The paper focuses on tracing the escalatory trajectories that preceded the war, analyzing the complex interplay between structural, political, and economic factors, as well as the impact of the political economy on the dynamics of the conflict and its escalation to full-scale war.

The paper highlights the analytical value of documenting and understanding the chronology of events and the political and security decisions that shaped the paths of escalation and shows that the transition from political conflict to armed war was not the result of a sudden event, but rather the culmination of a series of successive escalatory processes. It also highlights the concept of path dependence, as decisions made early in the conflict contributed to a chain of escalatory events that became increasingly difficult to reverse, even if the original objectives of the conflict evolved. The paper examines how interactions between the Sudanese army leadership and the RSF led to increased tensions, from attempts at political maneuvering and polarization to the use of violence as a tool to achieve political goals.

The paper makes an important contribution by linking Wolfram Lacher's theory of gradual escalation to the complex factors that contributed to supporting this escalation trajectory. The analysis reveals that the political economy of the war was not merely a background factor but a significant driver of escalation. Control over economic resources shaped the decisions of the conflicting parties and reinforced their calculations to maximize the benefits of the war, even as its humanitarian and political costs rose.

The paper focuses on how the expected economic gains of the conflicting parties influenced their decisions to continue escalation. It also shows how external support and the intersections of regional interests directly interacted with escalation dynamics, which contributed to minimizing the chances of de-escalation and prolonging the war.

The paper also adds an important analytical dimension by understanding the dynamics of the political economy of the war in Sudan, showing how external alliances were not just auxiliary factors, but became influential elements in the escalation processes, further complicating the conflict and making peace more difficult to achieve. It also highlights how looting and pillage became economic incentives for fighters and warring parties, helping to prolong the war and foster an informal war economy.

In conclusion, the paper presents a composite analytical framework that enhances our understanding of how the interplay between political economy and power struggles can drive successive escalatory dynamics, ultimately culminating in all-out war. This analytical framework invites policymakers and researchers to look deeply into the causes of the outbreak of war in Sudan, considering the complex and intertwined economic, social, and geopolitical dynamics. This analysis supports policymakers and researchers in adopting a more holistic and realistic approach to understanding the causes of the war and the mechanisms of its continuation, thereby contributing to the development of policies aimed at achieving long-term stability and peace in Sudan.