Introduction

The transition from COP28 to COP29 represents a crucial evolution in the global climate dialogue, with a notable shift toward the urgency of climate finance and the operationalization of key mechanisms like the Loss and Damage Fund. COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November 2024, was dubbed the "Finance COP" due to the central focus on securing financing for developing countries, addressing the growing concerns of vulnerable nations, and ensuring that the promises made at previous COPs are fulfilled. This emphasis on climate finance reflects the increasing pressures from nations most impacted by climate change, particularly in the Global South, where climate-induced disasters are intensifying.

COP28, held in Dubai, UAE, laid the groundwork by establishing the Loss and Damage Fund, marking a significant step forward in acknowledging the financial needs of vulnerable countries. COP29, however, took this further by focusing on the operationalization of this fund and pushing for ambitious financial commitments, including establishing a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, with developing countries pushing for an annual target of $1.3 trillion by 2025. This development reflects a deeper recognition of the disproportionate burden borne by the Global South in terms of climate impacts and the necessity of financial support for their transition to a low-carbon future.

Morocco, which has consistently positioned itself as a leader in climate action within the Global South, played a pivotal role in COP29's outcomes, reflecting both its national achievements and its broader advocacy for climate justice. Morocco's contributions, including its emphasis on renewable energy, just transition, and adaptation finance, align closely with global trends in climate governance, especially the increasing call for equitable financial flows and mechanisms that prioritize the most vulnerable nations.

COP29's significance is further underscored by recent global climate events, such as the escalating frequency of extreme weather events and the recognition at COP28 that climate disasters are costing vulnerable nations billions annually. These events serve as stark reminders of the urgency for scaling up adaptation finance and addressing loss and damage.

Key Takeaways from COP29

Climate Finance: Negotiations and Challenges

One of the most pressing issues at COP29 was the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, with a significant focus on increasing funding commitments to developing nations. The G77 and China led the push for a robust financial commitment, advocating for an annual target of $1.3 trillion starting in 2025 to meet the escalating financial needs. The inadequacy of the previous $100 billion goal, agreed upon in 2009 but never fully realized, was highlighted as a major concern. Developing countries, especially in regions like Africa, voiced frustration over how limited funding constrains their ability to implement National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which are critical for managing climate risks.

For example, African nations, such as Malawi and Sudan, pointed out how lack of finance impedes their capacity to protect communities from extreme droughts and floods, worsening food insecurity and loss of livelihoods. A comparison of funding gaps by region underlined this inequality. African nations are often among the least funded in terms of adaptation finance, with current financing levels far from what is needed to meet the rising costs of climate-related damages.

Developed countries resisted calls to make Loss and Damage Fund contributions mandatory, arguing for voluntary contributions. This created a significant rift in negotiations. Meanwhile, nations like the United States and the EU were seen as blockers, with some of their representatives stressing fiscal responsibility rather than accepting binding financial obligations. On the other hand, countries within the G77 and China were at the forefront of advocating for increased finance through mandatory contributions. The final text negotiated at COP29 included a commitment to review the NCQG every five years, in line with the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake process. The inclusion of this five-year review cycle was a result of intense negotiation, aiming to provide clarity and ensure that commitments remain ambitious and aligned with evolving climate needs.

The decision to establish the NCQG and review it every five years was not without debate, as developing nations pushed for long-term, predictable funding, while developed nations sought more flexibility. The mechanisms were decided through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations, with input from the G77, China, the EU, and other parties, reflecting a balance of interests that will continue to evolve in future COP meetings.

Loss and Damage: Operationalizing the Fund

As climate-induced disasters continue to escalate, with costs projected to exceed $400 billion annually by 2030, vulnerable countries at COP29 emphasized the urgency of operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund. This fund, first established at COP28, aims to provide financial support to those suffering from the devastating impacts of climate change, such as flooding, droughts, and rising sea levels.

A country-specific example of loss and damage was highlighted during the discussions: Pakistan's 2022 floods, which caused damages exceeding $30 billion, exemplify the urgent need for predictable funding mechanisms that can assist in recovery efforts. Pakistan’s floods devastated millions of people, displacing communities and causing extensive damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and homes, further underlining the necessity of the Loss and Damage Fund. As countries like Pakistan continue to face catastrophic climate disasters, the operationalization of the fund becomes more critical in providing financial relief and ensuring long-term recovery.

This operationalization sets the stage for future climate governance mechanisms, such as liability and compensation frameworks, which could hold polluting countries accountable for the damages they have caused. Negotiations in COP29 laid the groundwork for such frameworks, with developing nations emphasizing that future climate funds must be predictable, transparent, and accessible.

Just Transitions: Ensuring Equity and Inclusivity

Just transitions were a central theme at COP29, emphasizing the need to balance climate action with socioeconomic development, especially for economies heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The G77 and China led calls for just transitions, advocating for financial and technical support to help countries shift toward greener alternatives while minimizing job losses and economic hardships.

At COP29, a framework was adopted to guide just transitions, recognizing the importance of tailored approaches for different national contexts. Just transitions are not just about shifting energy systems but also about ensuring that the process is inclusive, equitable, and benefits the most vulnerable communities. This could include creating new green jobs, reskilling workers, and ensuring access to clean energy for all.

A successful example of such a framework is South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership, which focuses on coordinated international support to help the country phase out coal dependency while creating new employment opportunities in renewable energy sectors. This partnership demonstrates how international cooperation can enable fossil fuel-dependent economies to transition smoothly without leaving workers behind.

COP29 also addressed the challenges faced by fossil fuel-dependent economies in the Arab region, where countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others face the dual challenge of reducing emissions while maintaining economic growth. The Arab Group emphasized the need for financial support, technology transfer, and capacity building to assist these economies in transitioning to low-carbon energy sources. The conference recognized that these transitions should be gradual and equitable, with the inclusion of a framework to guide these processes while ensuring that financial resources are available to support vulnerable communities during the transition.

Morocco’s Positions and Contributions

Morocco's leadership at COP29 highlighted its strong commitment to climate action, with a clear focus on advocating for equitable climate finance, renewable energy, adaptation strategies, and youth involvement. The country has played a crucial role in rallying other African and Arab nations, using its unique position as a bridge between global climate agendas to advocate for the Global South, particularly in financing and just transitions.

Leadership in Climate Finance Advocacy

Morocco has positioned itself as a critical leader in the push for climate finance, bridging the agendas of Africa, the Arab region, and the broader international community. As a member of the G77, Morocco played a pivotal role in advocating for an increase in climate finance, specifically supporting the goal of securing $1.3 trillion annually by 2025. Morocco’s stance reflects the urgent need for predictable and adequate financing to meet the climate needs of developing countries.

In addition to pushing for this target, Morocco has consistently advocated for a more inclusive approach to climate finance, ensuring that local and youth-led initiatives can access resources without the barriers often presented by complex application procedures. Morocco’s role as a bridge between African, Arab, and global agendas has been instrumental in aligning the interests of these regions with broader global priorities. For instance, Morocco worked to bring attention to the climate finance needs of African and Arab nations, which are often underfunded despite being among the most vulnerable to climate change.

Morocco’s position on the $300 million climate finance announcement aligns with its broader strategy. While the commitment was a positive step, Morocco remains firm that it is a fraction of what is truly needed to address the scope of the challenges posed by climate change. Morocco continues to call for scaled-up commitments that are commensurate with the growing financial needs of the Global South.

Model for Renewable Energy and Just Transitions

Morocco has made significant strides in renewable energy development, both as a model for Africa and in its broader international contributions. The Noor Solar Project, the largest concentrated solar power plant in the world, exemplifies Morocco’s success in the renewable energy sector. Morocco is on track to reach 52% of its energy capacity from renewable sources by 2030, with a focus on solar, wind, and hydropower energy. However, despite these successes, Morocco has faced challenges, such as land disputes and financing hurdles. For instance, the Noor project faced criticism for its insufficient engagement with local communities during the planning stages, which led to concerns about the equitable distribution of the project's benefits.

Morocco is leveraging its renewable energy experience on the international stage through South-South cooperation. The country has partnered with other African nations to share expertise in renewable energy development, helping to build capacity and implement similar projects across the continent. This collaboration not only strengthens Morocco’s position as a regional leader but also underscores its commitment to fostering sustainable energy solutions in the Global South.

An example of Morocco's broader renewable energy ambitions is its export potential for green hydrogen, with the country aiming to become a global leader in green hydrogen production. Morocco is in discussions with European countries to export green hydrogen, leveraging its vast solar and wind resources to power this emerging sector. The development of a green hydrogen economy will not only contribute to Morocco’s energy transition but also help Europe meet its decarbonization goals.

Commitment to Adaptation and Resilience

Morocco’s focus on adaptation strategies has been integral to its climate diplomacy, particularly in addressing the impacts of climate change on water scarcity. One notable project is the Morocco Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector program, which aims to enhance the country's resilience to water stress by improving water management and increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems. With recurring droughts affecting agriculture, this initiative highlights the urgent need for adaptation finance to ensure that communities can cope with water shortages and continue to thrive.

Furthermore, Morocco has implemented several initiatives targeting climate resilience in vulnerable areas. The Green Morocco Plan, which focuses on community-based climate projects, serves as a strong framework for scaling adaptation efforts. The plan has enabled the country to enhance agricultural productivity while ensuring that rural communities are more resilient to climate impacts. Morocco’s advocacy for adaptation finance at COP29 emphasized the necessity of such projects, which require both technical and financial support to scale.

Advocacy for Loss and Damage Mechanisms

Morocco’s engagement in the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund was significant, reflecting its long-standing commitment to climate justice. Morocco joined other developing nations in advocating for clear governance structures and mandatory contributions to the fund, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that the financial resources are directed to the most vulnerable communities.

This commitment to loss and damage mechanisms builds on Morocco's own experience with climate-related disasters, such as droughts that have severely impacted agriculture and livelihoods in rural regions. Morocco continues to call for enhanced international cooperation to address these challenges, ensuring that vulnerable nations have access to the necessary financial resources to recover from climate impacts.

Youth Engagement and Climate Action Leadership

Youth engagement at COP29 was a powerful force in pushing for stronger climate commitments. Youth organizations from around the world participated in advocacy efforts, ensuring their voices were heard in discussions on climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage. These organizations led campaigns demanding increased financial support for youth-driven climate initiatives and the inclusion of youth representatives in decision-making bodies. Their advocacy also highlighted the need for more transparent climate finance mechanisms that prioritize local and youth-led projects, which often face barriers to funding.

One of the notable contributions was the "Climate Justice Now" campaign, where youth from various regions presented a unified call for world leaders to act swiftly on climate change and fulfill their financial commitments. In addition, youth delegations presented position papers addressing the specific climate challenges faced by their communities, advocating for more targeted solutions in adaptation finance. A significant achievement was the inclusion of a youth representative on a high-level panel discussing climate finance, marking a milestone for youth participation in climate negotiations.

Youth organizations also successfully pushed for the integration of climate education into national curricula, ensuring that future generations are better equipped to address climate challenges. Their advocacy amplified the voices of vulnerable nations, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), advocating for urgent action on loss and damage. By directly influencing negotiations, youth demonstrated their vital role in shaping climate governance, making COP29 a more inclusive and equitable platform for future climate action.

Analysis of COP29 as a Milestone in Climate Negotiations

COP29 marked a significant turning point in global climate governance, shaping the trajectory of future climate negotiations and deepening the focus on the most vulnerable and marginalized communities. While much of the conference’s attention was centered on the needs of developing countries, the outcomes of COP29 also had far-reaching implications for marginalized groups, including indigenous populations, youth, and women. The emphasis on climate finance and adaptation at COP29 aligned with the need for more inclusive frameworks that ensure resources reach these vulnerable communities.

The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, for example, addressed the urgent need for predictable and accessible funding for countries and communities most affected by climate change. This directly benefits marginalized groups who are often the first to bear the brunt of climate disasters, such as small island states and low-income rural communities. By ensuring that these groups are included in climate negotiations and financial mechanisms, COP29 helped further the goal of achieving climate justice. Additionally, the discussions on just transitions and adaptation finance provided important mechanisms for ensuring that marginalized populations can access the resources needed to build resilience against climate impacts.

COP29’s outcomes align with the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake, particularly with the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. By synchronizing the NCQG with the Paris Agreement’s five-year stocktake, COP29 strengthened accountability mechanisms, ensuring that climate finance commitments are reviewed regularly and adjusted to reflect the evolving needs of vulnerable nations. This alignment is critical for ensuring that climate action remains on track to meet global targets, particularly those related to limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

The geopolitical dynamics at COP29 were complex, with emerging economies like Brazil and India playing key roles in bridging divides between the Global North and South. These countries, which have significant regional influence, used their platforms to advocate for greater financial commitments and a fairer distribution of resources. Brazil, for instance, highlighted the importance of maintaining a focus on tropical deforestation and the protection of biodiversity, while India pushed for more robust commitments on technology transfer and capacity building for developing nations. Both countries, alongside other emerging economies, helped forge alliances to counterbalance the influence of developed nations that often resist binding financial commitments.

In contrast, the U.S. stance on Loss and Damage funding proved to be a significant point of contention at COP29. Despite acknowledging the necessity of addressing climate-induced losses, the U.S. maintained its position on voluntary rather than mandatory contributions, resisting calls for binding financial commitments. This reluctance demonstrated the persistent divide between developed and developing nations, with the U.S. and other developed countries seeking more flexible mechanisms, while the Global South demanded more predictable and legally binding finance.

China, meanwhile, occupied a dual role at COP29. As a leader within the G77, China supported the push for enhanced climate finance and adaptation funding, aligning with the priorities of developing countries. However, as the world’s largest emitter, China’s role in the negotiations was complicated by its position as both a developing nation and a major contributor to global emissions. This dichotomy influenced the negotiations, as China faced pressure from developed nations to take on more responsibility for emissions reductions, while simultaneously advocating for the financial and technological support needed by other developing countries. This balancing act has become a key feature of China’s participation in international climate negotiations and will likely continue to shape the global climate governance landscape.

Overall, COP29 reinforced the need for collective action to address climate change, with a stronger focus on marginalized groups and a commitment to accountability through mechanisms like the NCQG. The conference also highlighted the complex geopolitical dynamics that continue to shape climate negotiations, with emerging economies, the U.S., and China playing pivotal roles in advancing or blocking key resolutions. As the climate crisis intensifies, the outcomes of COP29 set the stage for future negotiations, with the potential for greater cooperation, but also ongoing challenges in bridging the divide between the Global North and South.

Insights into the Stances of the G77, China, and the Arab Group

G77 and China

The G77 and China played a crucial role at COP29 in advocating for the interests of developing nations. This block emphasized the need for comprehensive financial and technical support to achieve the Global Goal of Adaptation, especially as climate change disproportionately impacts vulnerable populations in the Global South. They pushed for grants instead of loans, recognizing the detrimental impact of debt on developing economies. The G77 and China also championed the need for greater financial commitments from developed countries to support adaptation and loss and damage, arguing that these countries should take responsibility for their historic emissions.

China’s role within the G77 was particularly notable. While advocating for increased climate finance, China also positioned itself as a leader for the Global South, calling for technology transfer and capacity building to support green transitions in developing nations. However, as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China also faced calls to take on more responsibility for emissions reductions, highlighting the complexities of its position as both a developing country and a major emitter.

Arab Group

The Arab Group played an influential role in COP29, with a focus on securing financial and technical support for energy transitions and water resilience, particularly in arid regions where the impacts of climate change are more pronounced. While much of their advocacy has traditionally centered on addressing oil dependence and securing financial resources for energy transitions, the Arab Group's contributions at COP29 went beyond these issues. They were instrumental in advocating for increased technology transfer, emphasizing the importance of enabling countries in the region to access advanced technologies that can support renewable energy development and climate adaptation efforts.

The Arab Group also pushed for more comprehensive strategies to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Several member countries, such as Morocco, have already made significant strides in renewable energy development, and the Arab Group collectively recognized the potential for renewable energy to become a major source of economic growth and regional integration. The Arab Group's efforts to highlight the importance of renewables were not only aimed at improving energy security within the region but also at positioning the Arab world as a key player in the global renewable energy transition. This includes the potential for green hydrogen production, with countries like Morocco and the UAE leading efforts to explore this emerging sector and establish connections with global markets, particularly in Europe.

In addition, the Arab Group played a key role in promoting South-South cooperation, recognizing that regional collaboration is essential for addressing shared climate challenges. By supporting initiatives that facilitate knowledge-sharing and technology exchange, the Arab Group advocated for a more integrated approach to tackling climate change in the region. This approach not only strengthens regional resilience but also positions the Arab Group as an influential voice in the global climate debate.

Key Blockers and Winners in COP29 Discussions

Winners: Developing Countries and Vulnerable States

The outcomes at COP29 represented notable wins for developing nations, particularly those in the G77 and China, who successfully pushed for stronger commitments on adaptation finance and loss and damage. One of the key achievements was the formal operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, which is crucial for countries facing the dire consequences of climate-induced disasters. Vulnerable states, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), successfully secured increased access to adaptation finance and clearer mechanisms for the Loss and Damage Fund. These countries also emerged victorious in their demands for a five-year review cycle for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), ensuring that financial commitments are reviewed and adjusted regularly, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake process. This win not only highlights the importance of ensuring continued support for vulnerable nations but also emphasizes the need for accountability and transparency in the distribution of climate finance.

However, while these outcomes can be seen as a victory for the Global South, they also come with complexities that have strained trust between vulnerable nations and developed countries. After COP29, several LDCs voiced disappointment with the results, describing the outcomes as insufficient and failing to meet their expectations. Their statements highlighted the continuing gap between what was promised and what was delivered, especially in relation to the funding levels required to cope with the escalating impacts of climate change. The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, while a step forward, was considered by some to be inadequate in terms of scale and accessibility. The continued reliance on voluntary contributions rather than binding commitments further exacerbated concerns, as many vulnerable nations argue that the fund lacks the predictability and long-term sustainability needed to effectively address the damage caused by climate disasters.

Resistance to binding commitments from developed countries is not solely a matter of fiscal reluctance but is deeply rooted in geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal constraints. Developed countries, particularly the U.S. and EU, are often hesitant to agree to legally binding financial commitments due to political pressures and concerns about domestic budgets. In many countries, there is significant opposition to increasing international climate finance allocations, which are seen by some as a financial burden, especially in the context of domestic economic challenges. The reluctance to accept binding commitments also reflects a broader geopolitical divide, where developed nations prioritize fiscal responsibility and maintain that climate finance should be voluntary, leaving the responsibility for providing funds to the private sector. This divide continues to be a barrier to more robust climate action.

Moreover, fossil fuel subsidies remain a significant roadblock to decarbonization efforts. Despite the urgent need to reduce emissions, fossil fuel subsidies continue to be a major policy tool for many developed countries, as well as oil-dependent economies. These subsidies – amounting to trillions of dollars globally – create a powerful incentive for maintaining the status quo and hindering efforts to transition to clean energy. The persistence of these subsidies undermines global decarbonization efforts, as they encourage the continued extraction and consumption of fossil fuels. In this context, while vulnerable nations were able to secure some wins at COP29, the lack of progress on fossil fuel subsidy reform highlights the ongoing challenge in aligning financial incentives with climate action goals.

Blockers: Developed Nations and Private Sector Hesitation

Despite the significant progress made in advancing climate finance mechanisms, the reluctance of developed countries to commit to mandatory financial contributions was a major point of contention at COP29. The U.S. and the EU, in particular, resisted calls for binding commitments to climate finance, including the Loss and Damage Fund. These developed nations continue to argue for the involvement of the private sector in funding climate solutions, preferring voluntary financial mechanisms over binding obligations. The skepticism surrounding binding commitments is compounded by political considerations, such as the challenge of securing domestic approval for increased financial contributions to international climate funds.

The private sector’s hesitancy to fully engage in financing loss and damage, as well as the continued support for fossil fuel subsidies, further hindered the progress of COP29 discussions. Fossil fuel subsidies, which reached $1.7 trillion globally in 2022, remain one of the largest obstacles to achieving global decarbonization. These subsidies distort market dynamics by making fossil fuels artificially cheap, discouraging investment in renewable energy technologies. The continuation of these subsidies undermines the efforts of vulnerable nations to transition to low-carbon economies, while also perpetuating the environmental degradation that climate finance mechanisms are designed to address.

This ongoing resistance from developed nations, combined with the reluctance of the private sector to take on a more active role in funding loss and damage, reveals the persistent tension between fiscal conservatism and the urgent need for climate justice. The struggle over binding commitments and the lack of substantial progress on fossil fuel subsidies highlights the deep divisions that remain within the climate negotiations process.

Conclusion

COP29 marked an important milestone in the global climate negotiations, making strides in addressing critical issues like climate finance, loss and damage, and just transitions. While the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance represented significant achievements for vulnerable nations, the ongoing gaps between promises and actual delivery remain a source of concern. The reluctance of developed nations to commit to binding financial contributions continues to hinder meaningful progress, and the persistent influence of fossil fuel subsidies remains a major barrier to achieving global decarbonization goals.

The tensions that emerged during COP29 particularly around financing commitments and the role of the private sector highlight the need for a more unified and accountable approach to climate action. Moving forward, COP30 will be an essential opportunity to build on the progress made at COP29 and address the critical challenges that remain. One key issue that must be resolved is the scaling up of climate finance, ensuring that vulnerable nations can access the resources they need to implement effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This requires not only increased funding but also a shift toward more predictable and accessible financial mechanisms.

Additionally, the continued reluctance of developed nations to accept binding commitments must be addressed. For the Paris Agreement to achieve its goals, there must be greater alignment between financial pledges and actual contributions, particularly in the context of the ongoing review of the NCQG. At COP30, negotiators must also focus on advancing the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, ensuring that it is fully accessible and capable of providing immediate support to countries facing climate disasters.

Another critical area for COP30 is the reform of fossil fuel subsidies. These subsidies continue to undermine efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy and exacerbate the challenges faced by vulnerable nations. COP30 must see meaningful steps toward the phase-out of these subsidies, creating financial incentives that align with global climate action goals.

Ultimately, COP30 will be a crucial moment for accelerating progress under the Paris Agreement framework. It must provide clear, actionable steps to bridge the divide between developed and developing nations, enhance financial support for vulnerable countries, and ensure that climate finance is both sufficient and equitable. As the world grapples with increasingly severe climate impacts, the next conference must push for stronger commitments, more inclusive policies, and greater cooperation to achieve a just and sustainable global future.

References

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UNFCCC, “Document on the G77 and China's Stance on Climate Finance, Adaptation, and the Role of Just Transitions”, November 2024, available at https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/SubmissionsStaging/Documents/202411151338---G77%20and%20China%20COP29.pdf

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