The discussion will be held in English.

You can register to attend by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live here on our Facebook page.

Is the presumption of authoritarian resilience in Arab region an illusory truth? Despite a promising start, Tunisia and Egypt have moved firmly back toward re-autocratization. Tunisia's gradual erosion of democratic gains under President Saied reflects a consolidation of exclusive power amid political and economic instability. At the same time, Egypt returned to a brutal and unmediated military dictatorship with no civilian counterweight under El Sisi. In their quest for survival, both regimes exhibited high maneuverability in dealing with recurring protests, dissent, and contestation by drawing from old authoritarian recipes, upgrading the apparatus of repression, and integrating innovative techniques to cope with dissent. Yet, these efforts are no definitive promise of stability. For years, Syria stood as the pinnacle of authoritarian resilience, deploying extreme brutality to maintain control, only to collapse like a house of cards when pressure mounted. Today, despite their seemingly ability to navigate waves of dissent, constantly adjusting tactics to maintain control, states across the region are facing growing fragility. President Kais Saied's grip on power in Tunisia remains precarious, weakened by the absence of a strong party infrastructure and a deepening financial crisis. Meanwhile, Egypt under El-Sisi faces mounting economic strain, with a spiraling debt crisis compounded by regional instability. The key question remains whether these regimes will crack like Syria when pressure mounts or have adapted just enough to stay afloat in the future.

The webinar « Authoritarian Upgrading: How Resilient Are Arab Dictatorships? » will explore the factors contributing to the entrenchment of Arab autocracies, focusing on three case studies: Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. The comparative framework involving all three countries provides a critical perspective into the machinery of authoritarian survival and resilience across the region, as each country follows distinct trajectories shaped by unique political and social contexts. At the same time, the webinar will also discuss the fall of the Assad regime and its potential implications for other regimes in the region, examining the underlying reasons for their vulnerabilities and offering insights into how cracks in these regimes might emerge in the future.