Introduction

This paper aims to explore the energy strategies adopted by the Jordanian government over the past five decades to achieve energy security in a sector plagued by ongoing geopolitical volatility and instability. In the face of these challenges, the government has adopted the diversification of energy supplies and increased reliance on domestic energy sources as two key pillars at the core of the desired transition. This vision required the development of strategic plans, the enactment of legislation, and the establishment of new government institutions. In this context, the study examines decision-making structures and the role of geopolitical forces to deepen our understanding of the transition policy-making process. The paper investigates the distribution of the transition’s benefits across different segments of society, highlighting both the beneficiaries and the disadvantaged groups. It includes a survey of active civil society orgainzations (CSOs) in the field of the energy transition, an analysis of the challenges they face, and the approaches to change they adopt. It also uses this analysis to assess aspects of justice and injustice in the energy transition.

First, we describe the decisions taken by the Jordanian government from the 1970s through the end of the 20th century to secure energy supplies at preferential prices amid volatile geopolitical conditions. We then explain the changes that occurred within the sector’s institutions as a result of restructuring and privatization programs, and how these institutional changes impacted the sector’s performance over the following three decades. We then examine how the Jordanian government responded to calls for energy security, review the options put forward that led to the issuance of the sector’s first national strategy for the period 2007–2020, and assess the government’s efforts to implement the provisions of the strategy. We then provide an analysis of the role of CSOs in influencing energy transition policies. We then review Jordan’s current efforts to position the country as a regional hub for the production and export of green hydrogen. In conclusion, we employ a conceptual framework to examine the dynamics of energy transition policy-making in Jordan and present a set of recommendations aimed at preparing the sector for a just transition that serves all segments of society equitably.

The methodology for preparing this paper relied on the collection and analysis of qualitative information from primary and secondary sources. To answer the research questions we posed regarding the drivers, challenges, and equity of the energy transition in Jordan, we drew on desk research, interviews with energy experts, and participation in relevant workshops and conferences. The desk research focused on reviewing a range of literature, including government documents (strategies and legislation), research reports, media articles, and papers published in peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed journals. The interviews were conducted in person and digitally between April and November 2025, with the participation of 14 experts, researchers, and former government officials.

The history of the energy transition in Jordan illustrates how social justice and autonomy over sectoral decisions have become hostage to energy security policies. The policy-making processes, along with their objectives and content, demonstrate that the energy transition does not occur in a political or economic vacuum, but rather reflects a struggle among competing actors seeking to influence policy content and impose their own agendas. After the government issued the sector’s first strategy in 2007, rivalries emerged between domestic and regional political and economic interests vying for control over the energy sector’s future. The paper reveals how these rivalries and unequal power dynamics within Jordanian society have shaped decisions regarding the exploitation of the country’s natural energy resources, leading to an uneasy coexistence among six energy sources.¹These sources include imported natural gas, domestic natural gas, shale gas, renewable energy sources (solar and wind), nuclear energy, and energy efficiency. Amid global interest in the supply of green hydrogen, the paper examines the position and role of regional geopolitical powers in supporting green hydrogen industries that possess massive land and water footprints, without regard for the local social and ecological context. Jordan’s energy transition efforts over more than five decades demonstrate that governance structures that do not grant civil society space as a legitimate political actor typically lead to the repeated reproduction of hasty and misguided policies and decisions, with dire consequences for justice.